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The food-away-from-home (restaurant purchases) CPI increased 0.6 percent in March 2023 and was 8.8 percent higher than March 2022.įood prices are expected to grow more slowly in 2023 than in 2022 but still at above historical-average rates.The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI decreased 0.2 percent from February 2023 to March 2023 and was 8.4 percent higher than March 2022 and.The level of food price inflation varies depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption at home or away from home: The CPI for all food increased 0.1 percent from February 2023 to March 2023, and food prices were 8.5 percent higher than in March 2022. The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, rose by 0.3 percent from February 2023 to March 2023 and was up 5.0 percent from March 2022. Time-Series Methods for Forecasting and Modeling Uncertainty in the Food Price OutlookĬonsumer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted)

Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service (USDA, ERS) will continue to produce new monthly forecasts using both the updated methods and the legacy methods through June 2023. Forecasts using the prior forecasting methodology remain available as data files (“Legacy Data”). As of January 2023, the Food Price Outlook Summary Findings are based on the revised data series. Note: The Food Price Outlook data series and forecasting methodology were revised in January 2023 based on the approach documented in the following report. See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index datasets. This page summarizes the April 2023 forecasts, which incorporate the March 2023 Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers.